Wednesday, March 8, 2017
Scenarios Now and the Genius (hidden) within Crowd via ScenarioPlans.com
On a sister site, there is a discussion by DelphiMan about the state of scenario planning today, and some new research on ways to squeeze out the genius among laypeople crowds: Scenarios Now and the Genius (hidden) within Crowd,
Check it out here on ScenarioPlans.com (or DelphiPlan.com).
First, a McKinsey study showed that CEOs really wished that they had done more scenario planning after the great recession. Before, really. But, now with almost 10 years in the rear-view mirror, it seems likely the idea of such vigilant planning for a flexible future has waned.
In the meanwhile, the genius of crowds can still be used very effectively using a Delphi Method approach to capture the expertise of experts (or informed people).
A very interesting new study used a crowd of laypeople. Even when the crowd is, on average, misinformed, it is possible to identify those people who are really informed and correctly assess the truth.
This reminds me, but in reverse, of a Lee Iacocca story when he was at Ford (prior to the turn-around at Chrysler). They surveyed people in upscale communities to see if they would like to buy the new Ford sports kind of car being developed including a convertible version. The answer was, unequivocally, NO!. Lee sent his team back into the suburbs to ask again. But this time the question was two part: "Would you buy this car?" NO. Would your neighbor buy this car?" Absolutely YES!
The Ford Mustang took the market by stampede!....
"We are continually faced by great opportunities brilliantly disguised as insoluble problems."
Lee Iacocca ... from BrainyQuote.com