Saturday, April 18, 2015

Moore’s Law Shows Its Age - WSJ:

Moore’s Law Shows Its Age - WSJ:

This is a great story of 50 years of computing with geometric growth in speed and halfing price of costs.

Of course the cost of a factory has gotten a little bit pricey!...

Here is a sister article:

There are some physical limitations that really kick is as very small levels, say 12 nanometers. Getting smaller at that point is no longer as "easy" as it has been.

Many people think that Moore's Law is going to Peter out. Other's like Ed Jordan (2010) in a Delphi Study found that the technology will likely need to change in the future. That the limitations of silicon will require a move to other technologies to reach that next BIG jump in smallness.

Jordan's 2010 study of computing technology experts found that,

"a technology to replace silicon dioxide would most likely
emerge sometime during the next 30 years" likely within 15 years... "the emerging
technology would mostly likely be biologic, probably protein based." (Hall & Jordan, 2013, p. 110)

Hall and Jordan (2013) talk about the next big leap in computing technologies and what impact that will have for computing intensive companies and those companies that make computing products.

It seems like about 50 years since we have had a truly disruptive technology innovation!...
Well, maybe 3-D printing... We will see.


Hall, E. B., & Jordan, E. A. (2013). Strategic and scenario planning using Delphi: Long-term and rapid planning utilizing the genius of crowds. In C. A. Lentz (Ed.), The refractive thinker: Vol. II. Research methodology (3rd Ed.). (pp. 103-123) Las Vegas, NV: The Refractive Thinker® Press. 

Jordan, E. A. (2010). The semiconductor industry and emerging technologies: A study using a modified Delphi Method. (Document No. 3442759, University of Phoenix). ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, 184. Retrieved from

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